Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x13b0…325b politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$12
politics 37% −$12
sports 14% +$9
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -4.6% -13.7% 14% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 7% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 5% -18.2%
15% -29.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage133d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $253 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $266 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $251 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $435 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $445 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $384 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $465 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $460 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $614 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $464 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 21d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $199 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $199 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $184 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $184 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 26d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $222 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $222 30d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $182 30d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $182 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $211 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $211 31d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $190 31d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $190 31d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $228 32d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $228 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 33d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 323 history records