Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x13af…00ea sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$13
other 11% −$9
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +67.1% +51.2% 100% 100% +51.2%
≤30d 54 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 43% -7.8%
≤90d 54 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 43% -7.8%
all 54 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 43% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 43% -7.8%
10% -24.5% 43% -16.6%
15% -31.8% 39% -24.7%
20% -38.5% 33% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage24d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 57¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? No $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 36¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? Yes 33¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 42¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 NRG 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Yes 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Karen Khachanov 49¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 57¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 70¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen Nishesh Basavareddy 38¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Anna Kalinskaya 57¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini Arthur Rinderknech 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $25 +$14 +55%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $26 −$26 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $15 +$11 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 −$5 -52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5 +$7 +128%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$4 +82%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $9 +$8 +93%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $20 +$24 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $7 +$4 +49%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $12 −$1 -6%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $1 +$1 +140%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $25 +$16 +64%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $5 +$5 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $5 +$2 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 28 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $4 +$6 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $9 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $8 +$2 +26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 27 $6 −$1 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $6 +$4 +73%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $7 +$3 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $10 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $5 +$6 +119%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 23 $15 +$19 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $5 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $26 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $25 9d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $15 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $10 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $10 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 10d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $15 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 43¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 23¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 46¢ $10 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $10 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $12 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 87¢ $7 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $9 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 11d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 60¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 21¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 54¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 51¢ $5 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $5 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 57¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 51¢ $3 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.27 · official $16.27 (match) · 93 history records