Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x13ad…4fde crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+10%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$3
other 12% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.9% +3.1% 76% 65% -3.5%
≤30d 17 +13.9% +3.1% 76% 65% -3.5%
≤90d 17 +13.9% +3.1% 76% 65% -3.5%
all 17 +13.9% +3.1% 76% 65% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 65% -3.5%
10% -6.8% 53% -12.7%
15% -15.8% 24% -21.1%
20% -24.1% 12% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 63¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 42¢ $0 6d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 43¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records