Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13ad…e0c8 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$8
other 19% +$4
politics 8% $0
culture 4% +$2
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +70.9% +54.6% 25% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 16 +53.2% +38.6% 31% 6% -9.8%
all 37 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 5% -9.6%
10% +1.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -8.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -17.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage302d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $72 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $132 −$6 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $211 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $81 +$4 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $54 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $37 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $22 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $18 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $8 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $21 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $25 36h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $43 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $17 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $15 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $28 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $71 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $42 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $34 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $28 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $67 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $29 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $13 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $17 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.08 · official $45.08 (match) · 290 history records