Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a9…fc29 weather 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$18
politics 17% −$1
weather 16% −$35
other 8% −$4
sports 3% $0
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.2% -16.9% 0% 0% -19.1%
≤30d 10 -8.2% -16.9% 0% 0% -19.1%
≤90d 22 -12.8% -21.1% 5% 0% -11.2%
all 39 -8.5% -17.3% 18% 8% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 8% -12.0%
10% -25.2% 8% -20.4%
15% -32.4% 8% -28.1%
20% -39.0% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage264d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$8 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$6 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Mar 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 27 $124 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $320 −$1 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $813 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 27? Mar 27 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 27? Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 17 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 17 $16 −$1 -8%
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31? Mar 17 $22 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17? Mar 17 $14 −$7 -50%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Mar 17 $66 −$3 -4%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 17 $74 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17? Mar 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $32 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 16 $180 −$12 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Sep 30 $3 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Sep 26 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Sep 26 $2 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Sep 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 51¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 52¢ $10 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 44¢ $21 55m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $12 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $12 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 46¢ $18 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 51¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 54¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 61¢ $39 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $32 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 39¢ $38 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records