Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a7…b720 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 251L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$41
sports 23% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $759 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $884 −$3 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $855 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 9h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 11h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 11h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 21h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 22h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 29h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 33h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 38h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 40h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 41h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 44h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1422 history records