Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a4…8f84 crypto 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,177 (+19%) realized +$6,177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%218W / 238L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$43
14 days+$448
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 42% -10.9%
≤30d 110 +10.2% -0.3% 47% 40% -6.0%
≤90d 456 +16.6% +5.5% 48% 41% +5.8%
all 456 +16.6% +5.5% 48% 41% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 41% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 36% -4.3%
15% -13.8% 34% -13.5%
20% -22.3% 30% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$56 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses218 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$72 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$56 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$37 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$72 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$31 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$42 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$41 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$61 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $55 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $34 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $37 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $71 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $24 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $37 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $60 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $46 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records