Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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13 0x13a2…95e0 crypto 936 markets active 6d ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,918 (+6%) realized +$2,918 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%498W / 438L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -9.3% -17.9% 76% 66% -20.1%
≤30d 74 -9.3% -17.9% 76% 66% -20.1%
≤90d 936 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 52% -9.7%
all 936 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 52% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 47% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 47% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 47% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$57 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$2,918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses498 / 438
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 47¢ 48¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 40¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+145%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 44¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 49¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.07 · official $20.75 · 3500 history records