Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13a1…d9bc sports 579 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$47,857 (+24%) realized +$47,857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%363W / 216L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$1,248est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$11,700
other 47% +$2,260
world 2% +$308
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +49.4% +35.2% 80% 63% +15.8%
≤30d 203 +11.8% +1.2% 61% 50% -0.5%
≤90d 579 +11.8% +1.1% 63% 46% -2.9%
all 579 +11.8% +1.1% 63% 46% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 46% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 31% -12.2%
15% -17.4% 25% -20.7%
20% -25.5% 14% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$115 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47,857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses363 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,248
Open positions0
Markets (closed)579 / 579
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$338
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 579 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $346 +$115 +33%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $205 +$683 +334%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $401 +$1,373 +343%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $111 +$27 +24%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $142 +$46 +33%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $249 +$22 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $406 +$139 +34%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $347 +$186 +54%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $465 +$85 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $866 −$849 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $503 −$494 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $148 +$38 +26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $404 +$134 +33%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 +$4 +276%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$3 +188%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $546 +$286 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -35%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $478 +$122 +26%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $500 +$377 +75%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $771 +$269 +35%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $11 +$9 +82%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $1,516 +$1,347 +89%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $1,028 +$78 +8%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $104 +$9 +8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $817 +$68 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,210 +$114 +9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $911 +$649 +71%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,089 −$621 -57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $459 +$41 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,234 +$570 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $382 +$99 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $460 +$35 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $451 −$8 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $986 −$137 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $990 −$175 -18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$8 +58%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $851 +$267 +31%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,409 +$189 +13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,329 +$1,225 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $461 58m
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $887 58m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 89¢ $1,707 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $205 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $54 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 19¢ $363 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 18¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $72 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $83 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $99 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $91 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $72 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $70 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 68¢ $67 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $545 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $532 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $551 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 92¢ $208 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $347 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $465 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $36 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 92¢ $63 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 92¢ $186 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $503 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records