Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13a0…e8b9 crypto 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%211W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$394
other 13% −$12
sports 7% −$125
world 5% −$125
politics 3% −$128
economics 0% −$24
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +32.6% +19.9% 57% 57% +8.3%
≤30d 21 +32.6% +19.9% 57% 57% +8.3%
≤90d 21 +32.6% +19.9% 57% 57% +8.3%
all 378 +3.6% -6.2% 56% 48% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 48% -9.8%
10% -15.2% 44% -18.4%
15% -23.4% 41% -26.3%
20% -30.9% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses211 / 167
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)378 / 378
History coverage586d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 378 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$24 +119%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$10 +188%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 +$10 +388%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso Feb 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Rotterdam Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Feb 12 $60 +$4 +7%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Feb 12 $5 +$13 +257%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Feb 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Everton FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 11 $40 +$5 +13%
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 09 $120 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 08 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 08 $80 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 08 $52 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 08 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 08 $45 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 08 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $5 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 30h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $20 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 63¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $20 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 61¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 68¢ $27 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $20 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 56¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso SELL No $0 122d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 760 history records