Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x139f…d19c sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-3%) realized −$157 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate84%27W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$130
other 12% +$32
world 10% −$360
economics 5% +$47
culture 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.7% +0.2% 75% 25% -4.3%
≤30d 16 +2.3% -7.4% 81% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 18 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 33% -12.9%
all 32 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 31% -12.2%
10% -19.4% 9% -20.6%
15% -27.2% 3% -28.3%
20% -34.3% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$110 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses27 / 5
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage206d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 28¢ 90¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+219%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$19 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $189 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $182 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$7 -22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$5 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $120 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $48 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $76 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$6 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $54 −$9 -16%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $47 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $114 +$5 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $131 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $347 +$29 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? Mar 21 $234 +$14 +6%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Mar 19 $417 −$377 -90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $176 +$2 +1%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $310 +$28 +9%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Feb 01 $208 +$3 +1%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 31 $406 +$53 +13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $266 +$12 +5%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $659 +$62 +10%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jan 30 $216 +$14 +7%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $168 +$21 +12%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 29 $163 +$6 +4%
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Jan 26 $145 +$18 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $293 +$47 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 64¢ $191 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $109 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 59¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $38 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 85¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $197 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 95¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 95¢ $114 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 95¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 85¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 85¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 85¢ $70 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 85¢ $73 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $182 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 24¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 24¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 24¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 24¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.96 · official $8.91 (match) · 263 history records