Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x139f…bb2f other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$419 (+22%) realized +$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 89L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$37
14 days+$246
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$280
other 29% +$32
world 3% +$23
crypto 2% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -44.0% -49.4% 20% 20% -3.9%
≤30d 122 +8.7% -1.6% 29% 29% +10.6%
≤90d 128 +9.6% -0.8% 30% 30% +10.0%
all 128 +9.6% -0.8% 30% 30% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 30% +10.0%
10% -10.3% 30% -0.6%
15% -19.0% 30% -10.2%
20% -26.9% 30% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$11 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 89
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 139
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $29 $45 +$16 (+56%)
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$19 +124%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $35 +$36 +105%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $56 +$50 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $28 +$24 +86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $35 +$79 +226%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $36 +$34 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $31 +$66 +216%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 +$34 +109%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$26 +509%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 36m
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 53m
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 35h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? AND Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina BUY 4¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Exact Score: Colombia 2 - BUY 11¢ $10 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY 18¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.33 · official $45.33 (match) · 190 history records