Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x139e…4f76 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,025 (-1%) realized −$2,028 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%22W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1,883
politics 37% −$67
sports 15% −$89
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$3
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$6
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 10% -10.8%
10% -18.3% 10% -19.3%
15% -26.2% 9% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,381) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$27 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized−$2,028
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses22 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $861 $864 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $354 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $243 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $343 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $461 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,833 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,541 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,515 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,082 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $333 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $538 +$3 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,291 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $2,562 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,276 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $2,568 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $852 +$2 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $5,378 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,333 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,333 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,325 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,387 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $353 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $354 3h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $243 5h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $243 6h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $342 7h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $343 10h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $353 30h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $354 31h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $460 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $461 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $472 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $485 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $323 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $861 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,113 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,115 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,269 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 15d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,183 20d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.00 · official $864.00 (match) · 417 history records