Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1399…37e6 crypto 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393 (-8%) realized −$387 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%107W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$287
sports 19% +$53
other 11% −$270
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.4% +13.4% 58% 58% -2.2%
≤30d 26 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 46% -22.3%
≤90d 132 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 42% -22.2%
all 228 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 45% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 45% -19.6%
10% -27.7% 40% -27.3%
15% -34.7% 32% -34.3%
20% -41.1% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$387
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses107 / 121
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)228 / 231
History coverage111d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 36¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $17 +$22 +128%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$56 -55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$57 +139%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +102%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$28 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $32 +$34 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 −$40 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$40 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $127 −$124 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 23 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 23 $62 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $10 +$5 +52%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $10 +$11 +112%
Barcelona SC vs. CD Universidad Católica: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $20 +$13 +67%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $10 +$6 +64%
CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $13 +$4 +34%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Independiente del Valle vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 3 Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $51 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $17 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 30¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL 28¢ $46 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 30¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $41 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $41 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $36 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $55 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $40 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $25 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $66 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.36 · official $83.68 (match) · 718 history records