Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x1395…040a crypto 1802 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$673 (+2%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate88%1585W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -1.7% -11.1% 84% 57% -11.8%
≤30d 867 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 54% -9.3%
≤90d 1800 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 44% -10.3%
all 1800 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 44% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 44% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 14% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1585 / 215
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1800 / 1802
History coverage74d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 91¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.27 · official $4.11 (match) · 3500 history records