Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1394…607e other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$2
world 42% −$3
politics 5% $0
culture 3% −$13
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -10.4%
all 34 -1.5% -10.9% 15% 3% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage255d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $43 +$2 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $24 −$13 -54%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 12m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 12m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.36 · official $14.36 (match) · 124 history records