Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
13 0x138f…e0bb politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+7%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$16
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$15
world 22% −$1
other 13% +$2
tech 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 33% 17% +11.6%
≤30d 11 -16.0% -24.0% 27% 9% +0.3%
≤90d 11 -16.0% -24.0% 27% 9% +0.3%
all 11 -16.0% -24.0% 27% 9% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 9% +0.3%
10% -31.3% 9% -9.3%
15% -37.9% 9% -18.1%
20% -44.0% 9% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage22d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 22 $34 +$19 +57%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -30%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -67%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $7 −$1 -21%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 2h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 90¢ $50 35h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 66¢ $7 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $10 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $10 5d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes $0 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 89¢ $10 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $9 8d
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $9 9d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes $5 16d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes $7 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $10 20d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 20d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 20d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.48 · official $72.48 (match) · 28 history records