Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x138e…3305
crypto · 303 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$308 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$312 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses149 / 153
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)302 / 303
History coverage67d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 302 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 29¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $24 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$171
other 31% +$26
sports 18% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $17 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 37% -9.1%
≤30d 144 -11.2% -19.6% 53% 34% -14.6%
≤90d 302 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 36% -17.6%
all 302 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 36% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 36% -17.6%
10% -27.3% 26% -25.5%
15% -34.3% 18% -32.7%
20% -40.8% 13% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.47 · official $6.81 (match) · 861 history records