Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x138d…8a9e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-31%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$41
other 28% −$39
crypto 12% −$24
tech 7% +$12
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 35% -42.3%
≤30d 17 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 35% -42.3%
≤90d 17 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 35% -42.3%
all 17 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 35% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 35% -42.3%
10% -35.9% 35% -47.8%
15% -42.1% 35% -52.9%
20% -47.8% 35% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -91%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 39m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 40m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 41m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 42m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $19 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 61¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.34 · official $41.34 (match) · 32 history records