Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x138c…d2c7 crypto 77 markets active 4d ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$531 (-60%) realized −$531 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%40W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$517
crypto 20% −$3
other 1% −$12
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +6.2% -3.9% 69% 59% -11.0%
≤30d 49 +6.2% -3.9% 69% 59% -11.0%
≤90d 49 +6.2% -3.9% 69% 59% -11.0%
all 77 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 45% -64.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 45% -64.6%
10% -33.7% 34% -68.0%
15% -40.1% 25% -71.1%
20% -46.0% 13% -73.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$531
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses40 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage251d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31? Nov 18 $11 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records