Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x138b…b6d5
weather · 1085 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$210 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$209 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$861
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1048 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1066 / 1085
History coverage42d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 22 History 1066 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$26
14 days−$38
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 97¢ 94¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 90¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23? No 99¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 22? No 98¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$99
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $46 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $45 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 686 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 1066 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -10.0%
all 1066 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.07 · official $861.07 (match) · 3500 history records