Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x138a…8197 sports 1206 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-1%) realized −$807 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%886W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$23
14 days−$54
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$85
other 29% −$590
politics 4% −$95
crypto 3% +$59
tech 2% −$22
weather 2% −$64
world 2% −$51
finance 1% −$60
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.5% -7.3% 76% 24% -6.1%
≤30d 118 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 18% -10.3%
≤90d 557 -1.7% -11.0% 70% 28% -8.9%
all 1195 -1.9% -11.2% 74% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 39% -10.9%
10% -19.7% 18% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 8% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$807
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses886 / 309
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1195 / 1206
History coverage239d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 81¢ $36 $32 −$3 (-9%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 96¢ 93¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No 89¢ 89¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 88¢ 86¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? No 97¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 74¢ 26¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $95 +$9 +10%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 25 $24 $0 -1%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 24 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $64 +$11 +17%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $34 +$1 +4%
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $68 +$32 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $43 +$2 +6%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $24 +$1 +6%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $81 +$3 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +38%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$10 +22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $96 +$9 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 +$9 +25%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -94%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $46 +$4 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $36 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $104 2h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 3h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 3h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 11h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 11h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 74¢ $19 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 11h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $95 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 64¢ $16 26h
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 2d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $34 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 86¢ $30 4d
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi BUY Yes 98¢ $15 4d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 88¢ $22 4d
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 4d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $100 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $34 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $11 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.85 · official $262.61 (match) · 2665 history records