Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1387…c0cf other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1
world 28% $0
politics 10% +$1
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -11.3% -19.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -4.9% -14.0% 45% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage473d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $36 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 15 $12 $0 -4%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 27 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $12 $0 -1%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 07 $12 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $13 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $27 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $6 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $14 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $33 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $12 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records