Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1385…1cf9 crypto 139 markets active 101d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,988 (-10%) realized −$10,988 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 110L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 39% −$2,574
crypto 38% −$6,830
other 15% +$2,116
politics 7% −$3,321
world 2% −$1,056
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 139 -39.7% -45.5% 21% 17% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.5% 17% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.7% 13% -26.7%
15% -55.5% 11% -33.8%
20% -59.8% 8% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$660) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$229 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage73d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $8,267 −$762 -9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $214 −$25 -12%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 11AM ET Mar 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $150 −$119 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $153 +$70 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $375 −$35 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $227 +$119 +52%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 04 $1,791 −$694 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 03 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 03 $1,038 +$138 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 03 $660 +$120 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 4? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 4? Mar 03 $9 −$8 -84%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 4? Mar 03 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 03 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 03 $25 −$13 -52%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 03 $1,208 −$573 -47%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 4? Mar 03 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 03 $260 −$162 -62%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 4? Mar 03 $13 −$6 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $151 −$131 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 02 $38 +$34 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $268 −$268 -100%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on March 4? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 02 $182 −$182 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on March 3? Mar 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on March 3? Mar 02 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 3? Mar 02 $23 +$11 +46%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 3? Mar 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? Mar 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on March 3? Mar 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 3? Mar 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 3? Mar 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 3? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 3? Mar 02 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 25 $18,862 −$190 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 25 $9,918 +$213 +2%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 25 $2,919 −$1,621 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 25 $58 +$47 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 25 $200 +$182 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 25 $350 +$248 +71%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $5,800 −$3,865 -67%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $1,907 −$1,383 -72%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $1,451 −$806 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $74 101d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL No 2¢ $189 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 11AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $55 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 11AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $50 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 102d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 102d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 102d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $223 102d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $340 102d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $346 102d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $214 102d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $213 102d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 102d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 102d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 102d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $150 102d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 102d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 102d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $407 102d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $122 102d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $150 102d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $75 102d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $146 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $50 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $100 103d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $270 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $913 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $888 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 767 history records