Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1385…1106 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$44 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$9
world 27% +$14
sports 13% +$20
politics 13% −$9
finance 4% +$4
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.4% -18.0% 36% 36% -13.7%
≤30d 19 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 32 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 56% -6.0%
all 61 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 57% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 57% +0.4%
10% -16.8% 41% -9.2%
15% -24.8% 30% -18.0%
20% -32.2% 20% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)61 / 80
History coverage151d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 23¢ 18¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 66¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 75¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$18 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 03 $5 +$2 +41%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Apr 23 $5 +$1 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Mar 30 $10 +$3 +28%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 28 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $10 +$1 +7%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $5 +$4 +80%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $3 +$1 +35%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$16 +317%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 24 $2 $0 +20%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 22 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 20 $12 +$1 +7%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Feb 18 $8 +$11 +132%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 18 $3 +$2 +53%
Will MOUZ win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 09 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Team Vitality win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Feb 07 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 5d
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 16d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 21d
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 28d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 49d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 49d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 50d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.80 · official $114.80 (match) · 287 history records