Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1382…afec other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-27%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$11
crypto 27% −$6
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.2% -19.7% 55% 27% -31.5%
≤30d 25 -33.7% -40.1% 32% 16% -41.8%
≤90d 25 -33.7% -40.1% 32% 16% -41.8%
all 25 -33.7% -40.1% 32% 16% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 16% -41.8%
10% -45.8% 8% -47.4%
15% -51.0% 8% -52.5%
20% -55.8% 8% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 $0 -5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -73%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY No $1 11d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 11d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 11d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4? SELL No 32¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4? BUY No 31¢ $1 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.11 · official $9.12 (match) · 59 history records