Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1382…f3b2 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$110 (+0%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 57L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
other 18% −$28
politics 13% −$10
crypto 3% +$2
sports 1% +$159
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 58 +2.1% -7.6% 22% 14% -9.0%
all 76 +5.6% -4.5% 25% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 13% -9.1%
10% -13.6% 13% -17.8%
15% -22.0% 12% -25.7%
20% -29.6% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage614d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 +$5 +57%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $208 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $8 +$9 +119%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $400 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $398 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 +$4 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 5d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $13 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $133 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 18d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 22d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.37 · official $214.37 (match) · 311 history records