Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x1381…2388 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+5%) realized +$61 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$27
crypto 21% −$1
sports 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +83.0% +65.5% 86% 86% +54.8%
≤30d 7 +83.0% +65.5% 86% 86% +54.8%
≤90d 7 +83.0% +65.5% 86% 86% +54.8%
all 7 +83.0% +65.5% 86% 86% +54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.5% 86% +54.8%
10% +49.7% 86% +40.0%
15% +35.2% 71% +26.4%
20% +22.0% 29% +14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$0 · ×32.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×193.21 per $1 lost it wins $193.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)7 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 89¢ 46¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 77¢ 67¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1 +$3 +293%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$19 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d Jun 22 $1 $0 -32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 3h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 26h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 84¢ $30 29h
Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 34h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 74¢ $10 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 25¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d SELL 4¢ $1 34h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 27¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 5¢ $1 34h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 34h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 34h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.29 · official $350.29 (match) · 28 history records