Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x1381…343c crypto 783 markets active 3d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$472 (+20%) realized +$472 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate75%591W / 192L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$98
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$65
sports 24% +$532
other 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 125 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 34% +35.5%
≤90d 783 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 44% +7.5%
all 783 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 44% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% +7.5%
10% -21.3% 25% -2.8%
15% -28.9% 14% -12.2%
20% -35.9% 8% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses591 / 192
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)783 / 783
History coverage44d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 783 Trades
no open positions (180 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $15 +$37 +239%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $113 +$524 +465%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$67 +650%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $10 +$82 +803%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$44 +427%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$50 +484%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $5 +$10 +197%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 4¢ $5 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 11¢ $5 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $51 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 7¢ $10 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 11¢ $10 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 12¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 25¢ $10 5d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 18¢ $3 12d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 18¢ $2 12d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 25¢ $10 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 19¢ $10 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 23¢ $5 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 79¢ $30 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $10 13d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 17¢ $10 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 97¢ $606 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 16¢ $103 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 15d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $10 16d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $10 16d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 2¢ $2 16d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 11¢ $10 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $10 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 31¢ $10 17d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 13¢ $2 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $10 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 17¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1421 history records