Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x137f…968d sports 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,164 (-4%) realized −$1,046 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%118W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$198
14 days+$128
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$257
sports 22% +$5
crypto 10% −$678
world 7% −$635
politics 7% +$32
economics 3% −$283
tech 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.2% -27.8% 44% 38% -29.3%
≤30d 56 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 41% -10.1%
≤90d 153 -22.9% -30.2% 33% 32% -23.6%
all 275 -18.4% -26.1% 43% 35% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 35% -13.5%
10% -33.2% 29% -21.8%
15% -39.7% 27% -29.3%
20% -45.6% 23% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$48 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,046
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses118 / 157
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)275 / 278
History coverage761d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 35¢ 38¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ $205 $83 −$122 (-59%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$25 +50%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $51 +$53 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $51 +$2 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $51 +$74 +146%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $51 +$65 +129%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 17 $105 −$5 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $51 −$4 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $51 +$83 +162%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $51 +$53 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 08 $51 +$49 +97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $51 +$96 +188%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $51 +$116 +226%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $51 +$65 +129%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $51 +$65 +129%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $51 +$56 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 4h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 24h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $51 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $51 29h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $51 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $51 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $51 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 47¢ $53 5d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $51 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $51 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $51 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $51 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $51 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No $34 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No $66 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 13¢ $7 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 35¢ $103 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $105 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $47 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $51 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.67 · official $193.67 (match) · 837 history records