Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x137f…ad22 sports 530 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-7%) realized −$470 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%178W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$149
14 days−$165
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$356
other 22% −$115
crypto 0% −$17
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -29.2% -36.0% 27% 27% -31.2%
≤30d 340 -11.4% -19.8% 36% 35% -16.2%
≤90d 522 -16.4% -24.3% 34% 34% -19.9%
all 522 -16.4% -24.3% 34% 34% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 34% -19.9%
10% -31.6% 34% -27.5%
15% -38.2% 34% -34.5%
20% -44.3% 32% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$470
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses178 / 344
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions8
Markets (closed)522 / 530
History coverage65d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-12? Yes 23¢ 49¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+115%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 48¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 26¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Tunisia 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) San Jose Earthquakes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 4.5 Corners Over 40¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Cruzeiro EC 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-2.5) CF Universidad de Chile 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +221%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$10 -49%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +294%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$17 +408%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$9 +169%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: CD Unión La Calera (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +181%
Spread: CD Concepción (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$11 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $25 +$17 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$10 +203%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$21 +206%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $7 +$14 +213%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$14 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Bolivia O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Bolivia O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 7¢ $6 32m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 33m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $9 33m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 33m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $33 41m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 43m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 18¢ $10 2h
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) SELL CD Universidad Católica 96¢ $22 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $10 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) BUY CD Universidad de Concepción 59¢ $10 4h
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) BUY CD Universidad Católica 43¢ $10 4h
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 4h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5h
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) SELL CF Universidad de Chile 72¢ $14 6h
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-2.5) BUY CF Universidad de Chile 13¢ $4 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $7 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $7 6h
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) BUY CF Universidad de Chile 26¢ $5 7h
Spread: CD Unión La Calera (-1.5) BUY CD Unión La Calera 9¢ $5 7h
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.58 · official $52.58 (match) · 840 history records