Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1379…03f9 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 27% −$25
politics 10% −$8
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage140d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $315 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $163 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $477 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $806 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $919 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $497 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $143 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $380 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $380 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $373 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 40m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 7h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 10h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 11h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 16h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 20h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 26h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 27h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 32h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.49 · official $56.49 (match) · 1452 history records