Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1379…b41e crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (280 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$130 (+0%) realized +$203 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%32W / 39L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,409per market
Trades / day280.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (280 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 42% -18.9%
≤30d 71 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 42% -18.9%
≤90d 71 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 42% -18.9%
all 71 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 42% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover280.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 42% -18.9%
10% -30.5% 38% -26.6%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 32% -33.7%
20% -43.4% 27% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,530) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$937 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses32 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,409
Trades / day280.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 60¢ 48¢ $350 $277 −$73 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2,069 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,034 +$450 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $356 −$348 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $831 −$483 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,032 −$990 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $514 −$337 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $515 +$173 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,807 −$534 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $513 +$127 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $630 −$612 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $421 +$533 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $835 +$733 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $516 +$190 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,121 +$234 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $522 −$513 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5,623 −$4,679 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4,084 +$582 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,678 −$1,600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2,122 −$1,929 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,040 +$665 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4,306 +$966 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2,048 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8,220 −$717 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,045 −$951 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6,207 +$3,189 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $4,699 −$3,822 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6,176 −$2,135 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6,608 +$3,214 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1,964 +$1,017 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3,319 +$3,293 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2,062 +$1,228 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2,151 −$2,065 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,013 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,183 +$945 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $573 +$426 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,254 −$1,173 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $575 +$541 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $579 −$550 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $573 −$451 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $503 −$473 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $579 −$560 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1,077 −$406 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1,035 −$1,006 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,530 −$1,491 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,220 +$1,753 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $630 +$762 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $527 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $249 +$149 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $646 +$397 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $363 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $638 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $538 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $894 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,484 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $422 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $612 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $356 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $305 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $620 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $688 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $919 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $515 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $641 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $513 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $630 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $768 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $213 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $492 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $547 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.36 · official $277.36 (match) · 285 history records