Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x1378…dbd2 sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,204 (+14%) realized +$2,103 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%52W / 30L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$750
7 days+$285
14 days+$1,462
30 days+$2,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,868
other 5% +$212
crypto 1% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 56% -5.4%
≤30d 82 +15.6% +4.6% 63% 63% +2.8%
≤90d 82 +15.6% +4.6% 63% 63% +2.8%
all 82 +15.6% +4.6% 63% 63% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 63% +2.8%
10% -5.4% 63% -7.0%
15% -14.6% 62% -16.0%
20% -23.0% 55% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$188 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$2,103
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses52 / 30
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage17d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $225 $326 +$101 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $225 +$139 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $253 +$134 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$142 +110%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$296 +146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $203 +$159 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $212 +$223 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $220 −$218 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $147 −$145 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $226 +$219 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$123 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 −$296 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $104 −$103 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $225 −$222 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $225 −$222 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $227 −$224 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $93 +$135 +145%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $165 +$130 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $233 +$133 +57%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $296 +$287 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $240 −$237 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $224 +$112 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $198 +$86 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $260 +$141 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $138 +$121 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $226 −$222 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $143 +$221 +155%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $175 +$170 +97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $179 +$131 +73%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $202 +$105 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $202 +$128 +63%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $151 +$72 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $168 +$151 +90%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $147 +$174 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $333 −$328 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $214 +$170 +80%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $240 +$73 +30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $303 +$138 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $165 +$268 +163%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $98 −$96 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $228 11m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $364 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $225 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $386 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/ BUY 35¢ $9 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 2¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $253 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $130 8h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 63¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 17¢ $60 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $362 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $435 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $212 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $213 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $102 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $220 34h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $79 45h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $46 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $363 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $446 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $226 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $323 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $200 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $300 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $298 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.25 · official $345.25 · 143 history records