Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1376…9d1b other 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$527 (-93%) realized −$527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$522
other 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 18% 9% -20.3%
≤30d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 18% 9% -20.3%
≤90d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 18% 9% -20.3%
all 15 -57.1% -61.1% 13% 7% -94.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.1% 7% -94.2%
10% -64.9% 7% -94.7%
15% -68.3% 7% -95.3%
20% -71.4% 7% -95.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$41 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? Dec 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 180d
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? BUY No 7¢ $2 181d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? BUY No 10¢ $110 181d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 182d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? BUY No 34¢ $150 182d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $100 182d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 54¢ $160 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $1.14 (match) · 21 history records