Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1370…2cfd other 41 markets active 8h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,048 (+10%) realized +$12,816 · open −$768
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$2,971per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$27,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,185
7 days−$3,801
14 days−$3,940
30 days−$3,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$13,798
politics 28% −$3,442
sports 5% +$365
tech 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 37% 21% -20.4%
≤30d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 35% 20% -20.2%
≤90d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 21% +13.7%
all 33 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 21% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 21% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 18% -7.2%
15% -21.9% 12% -16.2%
20% -29.5% 12% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$3,012) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,466 vs −$588 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$27,099
Realized+$12,816
Unrealized−$768
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage172d
Avg bet$2,971
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $27,144 $26,459 −$685 (-3%)
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $313 $233 −$80 (-26%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $61 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-21%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $314 −$311 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,069 −$65 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,318 −$807 -61%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $89 −$3 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,455 −$3,056 -47%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $765 −$21 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 −$18 -2%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $542 −$9 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +54%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $5,484 +$548 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $1,972 −$250 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,081 −$10 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,889 +$84 +4%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $225 −$20 -9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,818 −$140 -8%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 17 $1,047 +$31 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $6,145 +$645 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $7,443 +$1,099 +15%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $813 −$9 -1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $465 +$31 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 11 $310 −$20 -6%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 10 $11,848 +$19,384 +164%
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? Mar 26 $3,012 −$644 -21%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 20 $17,930 −$4,713 -26%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $2,379 −$483 -20%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Mar 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? Feb 08 $112 +$26 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $314 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $113 34h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $100 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $220 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $312 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $6,267 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,038 36h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $114 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,600 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $231 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,092 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,011 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $505 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $877 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 75¢ $744 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $110 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,156 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $493 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,098.95 · official $27,098.95 (match) · 971 history records