Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x136c…7c5e sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$84 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$17
other 30% −$6
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 41% -3.6%
≤30d 41 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 41% -3.6%
≤90d 41 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 41% -3.6%
all 41 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 41% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 34% -12.8%
15% -31.0% 24% -21.3%
20% -37.7% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 88¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$6 +11%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$12 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$7 -41%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$7 +141%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $53 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -41%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 +$10 +136%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $60 19m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 58m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 97¢ $56 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 1h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes $0 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 93¢ $24 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $10 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $57 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 71¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $3 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.64 · official $20.64 (match) · 114 history records