Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1369…d24b crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%186W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$155
14 days−$166
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -0.7% -10.1% 61% 60% -14.3%
≤30d 215 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 48% -12.5%
≤90d 284 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 49% -10.2%
all 345 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 48% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 48% -11.3%
10% -22.1% 41% -19.8%
15% -29.6% 33% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses186 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage104d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $74 −$70 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 899 history records