Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1367…5e02 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$82 (+6%) realized +$252 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$140
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1
sports 29% −$28
crypto 13% −$26
weather 5% −$40
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 67% +22.0%
≤30d 3 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 67% +22.0%
≤90d 3 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 67% +22.0%
all 26 -46.7% -51.8% 35% 23% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 23% +2.6%
10% -56.4% 23% -7.3%
15% -60.6% 12% -16.2%
20% -64.5% 8% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized+$252
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 33
History coverage121d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $370 $198 −$172 (-47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $202 +$72 +36%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Ma Mar 04 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Ma Mar 04 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$3 +56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 1? Mar 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 1? Mar 01 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 01 $25 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on Marc Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Ma Feb 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 23¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $373 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 24h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $202 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 117d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $8 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 119d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 120d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Ma BUY No 74¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.70 · official $627.31 · 64 history records