Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1362…2081 crypto 1133 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-1%) realized −$479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%660W / 473L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$117
14 days−$199
30 days−$1,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$511
sports 7% −$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 39% -11.6%
≤30d 276 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 41% -11.8%
≤90d 726 -52.9% -57.4% 35% 21% -13.0%
all 1133 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -11.1%
10% -20.3% 45% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 43% -27.4%
20% -35.0% 40% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses660 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1133 / 1133
History coverage111d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1133 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $177 −$176 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $311 −$111 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $162 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $170 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $177 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $172 −$170 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $170 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $126 +$74 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $181 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $269 +$51 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $134 +$26 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2662 history records