Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x135f…ee02 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-47%) realized −$86 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$113
sports 15% −$2
other 2% −$5
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -90.8% -91.7% 0% 0% -82.6%
≤30d 30 -62.9% -66.4% 13% 13% -77.6%
≤90d 64 -45.7% -50.8% 22% 20% -61.7%
all 64 -45.7% -50.8% 22% 20% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.8% 20% -61.7%
10% -55.5% 20% -65.4%
15% -59.8% 20% -68.7%
20% -63.8% 20% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 24 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 19 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 17 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.02 · official $9.02 (match) · 157 history records