Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x135d…56c0 sports 487 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,831 (-5%) realized −$5,664 · open +$833
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%196W / 285L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$1,506est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$10,839
other 15% −$266
world 4% −$254
crypto 2% +$2,500
politics 0% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -61.7%
≤30d 298 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -22.8%
≤90d 481 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% -18.7%
all 481 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -18.7%
10% -24.3% 39% -26.5%
15% -31.6% 36% -33.6%
20% -38.3% 32% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$171 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2,772
Realized−$5,664
Unrealized+$833
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses196 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,506
Open positions6
Markets (closed)481 / 487
History coverage63d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tagger Anastasia Zakharova 42¢ 100¢ $487 $1,162 +$675 (+139%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $482 $566 +$85 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $481 $361 −$120 (-25%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Linda Noskova 60¢ 94¢ $196 $308 +$113 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 60¢ $195 $211 +$16 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $98 $163 +$65 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $733 −$713 -97%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,100 +$152 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $200 +$198 +99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $100 −$97 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$96 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,900 −$99 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 +$192 +384%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,695 −$1,640 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $400 −$156 -39%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $500 −$63 -13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $200 −$195 -97%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $100 −$97 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $300 −$48 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $350 −$339 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 −$145 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$224 +112%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $314 −$306 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $200 −$194 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $400 −$392 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 +$55 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,400 +$65 +5%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $100 +$175 +175%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $200 +$111 +56%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 10 $100 −$97 -96%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $100 +$29 +29%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $200 −$195 -97%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $200 +$426 +213%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $100 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $400 −$390 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $450 −$439 -98%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $100 −$97 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $200 +$132 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $400 +$322 +80%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $200 +$111 +56%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $200 −$195 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $400 +$311 +78%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $400 +$337 +84%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $200 +$224 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 11¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 11¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 31¢ $200 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 50¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 40¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 47¢ $200 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 64¢ $133 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $100 4h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $200 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 57¢ $200 4h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco BUY Jamie Mackenzie 51¢ $100 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $200 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 81¢ $1,000 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $200 16h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 65¢ $200 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $500 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,771.91 · official $2,771.91 (match) · 1004 history records