Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x135b…fcd9 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
world 27% −$4
sports 16% −$2
economics 9% $0
tech 8% −$1
other 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$984) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage84d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,147 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 25 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? Apr 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,029 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $984 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $969 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 14 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $75 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $51 23m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,145 30m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $10 38m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,111 48m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,195 1h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $844 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $241 1h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $19 2h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,086 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $937 70d
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? SELL No 100¢ $48 70d
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 100¢ $22 70d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $900 70d
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 70d
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 70d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $974 70d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $692 70d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 70d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 70d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $888 70d
Will Solana reach $110 in April? SELL No 94¢ $19 71d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 71d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records