Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1357…4829 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%91W / 50L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$273
14 days+$216
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$219
weather 31% −$214
world 1% +$28
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 11% -7.7%
≤30d 141 -12.7% -21.1% 65% 22% -9.3%
≤90d 141 -12.7% -21.1% 65% 22% -9.3%
all 141 -12.7% -21.1% 65% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 22% -9.3%
10% -28.6% 18% -18.0%
15% -35.5% 16% -25.9%
20% -41.8% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses91 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage29d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 95¢ 83¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $644 +$55 +8%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $242 +$7 +3%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $750 −$36 -5%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$95 -93%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $172 +$11 +6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $901 +$17 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $900 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $576 +$23 +4%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $570 +$29 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $701 +$27 +4%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $602 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $672 +$27 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $602 +$71 +12%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $6 +$4 +60%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $686 +$13 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $578 +$21 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $582 +$12 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $588 +$11 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $588 +$12 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $599 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $582 +$17 +3%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $4 +$6 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $640 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $391 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $646 +$13 +2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$3 -70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$4 -72%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$7 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 100¢ $699 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 92¢ $484 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 92¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 92¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 100¢ $250 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 97¢ $242 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $710 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $4 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $700 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $50 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $7 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $102 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $183 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $42 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $13 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $94 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $23 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $917 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $901 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $910 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 99¢ $900 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $599 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 96¢ $374 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 96¢ $58 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 96¢ $72 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 96¢ $72 21h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $599 21h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 95¢ $447 22h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 95¢ $19 22h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 95¢ $104 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $2.61 (match) · 453 history records