Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1352…2f95 crypto 945 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-1%) realized −$297 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%565W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$189
14 days−$145
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$370
crypto 15% −$111
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -8.3% -17.0% 66% 32% -13.3%
≤30d 321 -7.7% -16.5% 73% 20% -10.4%
≤90d 941 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 34% -10.6%
all 941 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 34% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 34% -10.6%
10% -22.8% 31% -19.1%
15% -30.2% 31% -27.0%
20% -37.1% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses565 / 376
Open positions4
Markets (closed)941 / 945
History coverage73d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-0%)
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 58¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 58¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 345 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $135 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +84%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 18 $133 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +59%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $129 +$2 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +85%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $129 +$2 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $136 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $136 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $135 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $135 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $133 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $133 37h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.48 · official $273.39 (match) · 1773 history records