Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x1351…2ce7 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%92W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 48 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 0% -9.4%
all 121 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses92 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage213d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 20? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 24? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23? May 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 20? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 17? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 14? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 11? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 8? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 7? May 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 4? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 22? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 21? Apr 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 20? Apr 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 17? Apr 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 16? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 15? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 12? Apr 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 11? Apr 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 10? Apr 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 9? Apr 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 8? Apr 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7? Apr 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 5? Apr 06 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 4? Apr 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 1? Apr 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 29? Mar 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 28? Mar 29 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $100 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $100 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 27? SELL No 100¢ $100 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $52 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $48 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? SELL No 100¢ $142 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $132 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.70 · official $99.70 (match) · 263 history records