Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x1350…7169 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,808 (+7%) realized +$1,821 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 54L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$316est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days+$137
14 days+$3,582
30 days+$8,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$3,139
other 9% −$376
politics 7% −$1,348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 57% -4.5%
≤30d 47 +20.6% +9.1% 53% 51% +73.2%
≤90d 51 +11.1% +0.5% 49% 47% +61.5%
all 100 +3.9% -6.0% 46% 44% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 44% -4.1%
10% -15.0% 39% -13.2%
15% -23.2% 36% -21.6%
20% -30.7% 29% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$221 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$1,821
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$316
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage603d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $65 −$19 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $328 −$322 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $224 +$98 +44%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $344 +$51 +15%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $210 +$74 +35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 −$85 -93%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $250 +$50 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $228 +$75 +33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $151 +$49 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $64 +$56 +89%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $182 +$77 +42%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $142 +$191 +135%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $215 −$172 -80%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $125 +$79 +63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $210 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$45 -75%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 +$18 +36%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $99 +$94 +95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $769 +$3,389 +440%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $114 −$7 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $239 +$19 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$76 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $58 +$103 +178%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $425 +$11 +3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 07 $40 −$21 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $90 +$110 +122%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 06 $174 −$92 -53%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $246 −$131 -53%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $682 −$678 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $55 −$54 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $514 +$376 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $323 +$121 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $681 −$376 -55%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $382 +$1,886 +494%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $218 +$322 +147%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 31 $930 +$1,039 +112%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $487 +$2,437 +500%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $149 −$148 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges $16 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 24¢ $74 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 24¢ $123 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $115 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $35 20h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 62¢ $78 28h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $144 30h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 61¢ $80 43h
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL Ghana 95¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL Ghana 95¢ $86 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL Ghana 95¢ $8 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 85¢ $64 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 83¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 83¢ $24 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $8 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 70¢ $210 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 86¢ $344 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 16¢ $9 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 16¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 16¢ $0 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 18¢ $14 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 43¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.35 · official $249.35 (match) · 1182 history records