Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x134d…1da2 crypto 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,041 (+1%) realized +$1,041 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%177W / 79L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$29
14 days+$44
30 days+$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,013
world 2% +$42
economics 1% +$6
other 1% +$12
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 88% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 33 +4.3% -5.6% 88% 9% -6.0%
≤90d 73 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 7% -7.6%
all 256 +2.3% -7.4% 69% 15% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 15% -8.4%
10% -16.3% 8% -17.2%
15% -24.4% 5% -25.2%
20% -31.8% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$1,041
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses177 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage569d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $517 $517 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 29 $1,063 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $185 +$10 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $181 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 29 $873 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $314 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $360 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 24 $240 −$8 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $62 +$8 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $558 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $513 −$5 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $595 +$49 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $101 −$22 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $178 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $177 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $450 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $536 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $628 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $279 +$118 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $478 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $657 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $155 −$5 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $260 +$15 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $636 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $291 +$209 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $426 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 28? May 29 $423 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $849 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 27 $438 −$24 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 26? May 27 $450 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $218 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $285 −$11 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 22 $346 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $207 +$28 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $378 +$36 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $334 +$31 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 30? May 01 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $518 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $517 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $516 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $134 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 95¢ $90 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 95¢ $8 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 95¢ $76 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 95¢ $10 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $319 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $181 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $181 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $317 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $314 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 67¢ $131 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $18 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $164 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $360 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $462 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $74 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $73 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $251 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $251 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $250 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $251 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $70 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $308 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $96 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $100 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $112 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.01 · official $517.01 (match) · 1490 history records