Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x134a…2628 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-1%) realized −$113 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate80%47W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$35
crypto 32% −$117
sports 9% +$12
other 4% −$58
politics 4% +$2
economics 3% +$1
finance 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.2% -40.5% 17% 17% -28.8%
≤30d 10 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 10% -12.3%
≤90d 24 -12.5% -20.9% 62% 4% -10.2%
all 59 -5.9% -14.8% 80% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -10.3%
10% -23.0% 2% -18.9%
15% -30.4% 2% -26.8%
20% -37.2% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses47 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage222d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $83 $79 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $66 +$34 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$20 -24%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -62%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $64 −$43 -68%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $64 −$2 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $215 +$15 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $205 +$5 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $549 +$2 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $96 −$10 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $753 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 03 $218 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 21 $1,040 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $826 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 14 $207 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $211 −$4 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 01 $207 +$3 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 30 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $2,131 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $204 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $197 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 09 $378 +$9 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $187 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Mar 06 $187 −$2 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $13 −$1 -7%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $94 +$11 +12%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 15? Dec 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 12? Dec 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $69 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $197 −$127 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 4? Dec 05 $190 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $185 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $64 6d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $66 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $61 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $64 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $215 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $210 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $188 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $17 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $122 18d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $89 18d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? SELL No 87¢ $86 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? BUY No 96¢ $96 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $97 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 39d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 39d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $86 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $119 39d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 40d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 40d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $119 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.00 · official $81.00 · 234 history records