Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1344…76a9 sports 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-8%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$119
14 days−$103
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$34
crypto 23% −$45
other 8% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.8% -30.1% 60% 40% -58.8%
≤30d 24 -30.0% -36.6% 54% 38% -23.8%
≤90d 26 -26.8% -33.7% 58% 38% -17.9%
all 26 -26.8% -33.7% 58% 38% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 38% -17.9%
10% -40.1% 27% -25.8%
15% -45.9% 19% -32.9%
20% -51.2% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage109d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 +$6 +66%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $77 +$2 +3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $3 $0 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $39 +$15 +40%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $17 +$9 +53%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 26 $7 +$3 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $64 +$46 +72%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $56 +$14 +25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $119 +$9 +8%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 22 $116 +$35 +31%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Meavedron vs EXILE esports (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seaso May 17 $94 +$20 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 13 $204 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $0 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $7 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $7 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records